February 2022 D.C. recap: Warmer and drier than normal
February featured big temperature swings and a few close calls for snowfall, but ultimately no measurable snow fell, and it was both warmer and drier than expected.
The average temperature of 42.6 degrees was 2.6 degrees warmer than normal and the 18th-warmest on record, tying 2002 and 1953.
The 2.33 inches of rain was 0.29 inches drier than normal, ranking as the 61st driest since 1872 and driest since 2017. Trace amounts of snow fell on three separate occasions but nothing that accumulated, at least at Reagan National Airport (0.9 inches fell at Dulles and 0.7 inches at BWI Marshall). Normal February snow is around 5 inches.
While it was mild on average, the month did feature some colder-than-normal periods. The afternoon of Valentine’s Day featured the coldest weather, while the warmest day occurred just a week later. The volatile temperatures were pretty typical of La Niña winter behavior.
Interestingly, the weekends seemed to feature some of the coldest weather, while it tended to be most mild around Wednesday.
From an extremes standpoint, there were 56 degrees between the coldest and warmest temperatures but no records were set during the month:
The February weather pattern
The weather pattern was colder than normal from a national perspective, but the East Coast maintained more warmth as storms tended to cut to its west, drawing in mild southerly winds. The storm track to the west also cut back on our precipitation totals.
Reviewing meteorological winter (December through February)
The warm and dry weather in February and December offset the cold and snowy January to produce a warm and dry meteorological winter overall.
Here is how the December through February average temperature compares to last year, historical averages, and the warmest (1931-32) and coldest (1904-05) meteorological winters:
Likewise, here is how the December through February precipitation total compares to last year, historical averages, and the driest (1875-76) and wettest (1881-82) meteorological winters:
Washington’s 12.3 inches of snow since Dec. 1, all of which fell in January, is tracking 1.4 inches below normal for an entire season. It seems like it will be difficult to make up that gap in March, but some colder weather projected for the middle of the month merits monitoring.
How was our February forecast?
Our forecast for February was poor. Back on Jan. 31, we posted a prediction of slightly below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. The forecast temperature range of 37-40 degrees was too low (actual: 42.6) and the precipitation prediction of 3 to 4 inches was too high (actual: 2.33 inches).
Furthermore, our projected February snowfall of 4-8 inches was far too high considering nothing measurable fell.
As we missed the mark for all of our February predictions, we’d give our forecast a grade of F.
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